Within the frameworks of the hydromechanical model (HMM) the diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations of TC movement are carried out. Diagnostic calculations show that the HMM rather correctly describes peculiarities of TC motion during the whole TC lifetime. Quasi-prognostic calculations show that model parameters may be rather correctly defined during the preliminary «preprognostic» period. Mean forecast errors of the quasi-prognostic calculations for the North-West Pacific are: 217, 272, 258, 257, 267 km for 3, 4, …, 7 days correspondingly in the TC season of 2010. The mean forecast error of the prognostic calculations for this region and the season is 350 km for 72 hours, that insignificantly (about 35 km) exceeds the official error and is within the limits of the forecast errors of the most developed dynamical prediction models.
|
